Tomorrow is Election Day, and early voting tallies continue to pour in. The program Community Change Action and Community Change Voters (our PAC) runs alongside our grassroots partners is overperforming statewide markers in almost every swing state, and turning out early voters remarkably in Georgia. Early voters in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan – voters we know will make the margin of victory in this election – have continued to show up at high rates throughout the early voting period. That’s especially encouraging because our comprehensive field is built to reach infrequent voters – many of them Black, Latino, AAPI, immigrant, women, low-income, and young. Our early vote data demonstrates that voters of color will be consequential to outcomes on November 5 and beyond.
Alongside our state partners, our program has had over 2.1+ million direct conversations with voters and touched over 12 million voters with our phones, door knocks, text, mail and digital program. I’ve included our most recent data on early voting in these critical states. Our National Political Director Grecia Lima can provide more information about these trends and our final push to impact these races, and our partners meeting voters on the ground can speak to what they’re seeing and hearing in their communities. Let me know if you’re interested in talking to anyone and I’ll connect you.
In Georgia, the voters that we and our partners reached continue to outperform statewide early vote averages. 61% of voters we reached have voted early, compared to 33% of statewide voters who have turned out. That puts our program at 28% higher than statewide averages, which is notable since our partners often focus on infrequent voters of color.
- We are seeing sporadic voters (voters that missed one or two past elections) overperforming in our program by 35% (45% among our targeted universe vs. 25% statewide) and among surge voters (voters who registered post 2020 or voted for the first time post 2018) we are overperforming by 33% (40% within our program compared to 22% statewide). These are the type of voters we need to clinch a Democratic win in the state.
- Among Black voters, we are turning out 33% more than the statewide average (63% to 30%) and among Latino voters, 71% of our universe has turned out – we are at an impressive 47% overperformance.
Hear from childcare providers and Georgia residents Unique Clay and Caroline Fulpher about why they’re voting and how they’re moving folks in their community to vote.
In Michigan, 27% of voters statewide have cast an early ballot, but 44% of people targeted by Community Change Action and our partners have voted. Voters we’ve reached are outperforming statewide averages in Michigan by 17%.
- Women within our program have turned out at 47%, whereas women in the state have turned out at 29%. Our program is overperforming statewide trends by 18%.
- We have more than doubled turnout with the oldest voters. Greatest Generation members in our program have taken huge advantage of mail-in ballots and early vote – they have turned out at 49%, while the statewide average is 21%. Silent Generation voters are at 75% in our universe and 55% statewide and Baby Boomers are at 66% turnout in our program and just 43% statewide. If older voters are turning out at higher rates and we can supercharge early vote turnout among our targets, this frees us up to focus on younger voters.
- There have been a lot of stories about how Black men will vote. In our program, they are at 35% of turnout, whereas statewide they are at 26%, overperforming statewide trends by 9% points.
In Nevada, voters targeted by Community Change Action and our partners are overperforming statewide trends by 17% higher (44% in our program vs. 27% statewide).
- Outcomes in Nevada will hinge on infrequent voters, including younger voters who take advantage of early in person voting. Among sporadic voters, voters that missed one or two past elections, our program has turned out 49%,, compared to the statewide 28%. A 21% increase in these voters is crucial in a state where a quarter of the electorate is new every cycle. And among surge voters (those who registered post 2020 or voted for the first time post 2018) we have turned out 39% compared to 21% statewide – 18% overperformance!
- AAPI voters in our program are overperforming 22 points ahead of the statewide average (48% vs. 26%) and Black voters in our program are overperforming 15 points at 35% turnout in our universe vs. 20% statewide. Latino voters are performing 12 points better in our universe (33%) compared to statewide (21%).
- Silent Generation (73%) and Baby Boomers (69%) in our universe are significantly outperforming statewide averages (35% for the Silent generation and 35% for Baby Boomers). That’s a 38% and 34% increase among those cohorts.
In Arizona, voters targeted by Community Change Action and our partners are overperforming statewide trends by 7% higher (33% in our program vs. 26% statewide).
- AAPI voters in our program are overperforming 12 points ahead of the statewide average (36% vs. 24%) and Black voters in our program are overperforming 12 points at 28% turnout in our universe vs. 16% statewide. Latino voters are performing 7 points better in our universe (24%) compared to statewide (17%).
- Among sporadic voters, voters that missed one or two past elections, our program has turned out 39% of those voters, compared to the statewide 22%. A 17% increase in these voters is crucial since Republicans have a numerical advantage among frequent voters. And among surge voters (those who registered post 2020 or voted for the first time post 2018) we have turned out 30% compared to 20% statewide – 10% overperformance!