We’re just days away from Election Day and early voting numbers across the country remain strong. We know this race will be close, and it’s all going to come down to turnout. Community Change Action and Community Change Voters (our PAC), alongside our grassroots partners, are maximizing the comprehensive field we have built to reach infrequent voters – many of them Black, Latino, AAPI, immigrant, women, low-income, and young – because we know the folks we’re targeting in key states like Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada will make the margin of victory in this election. And it’s working: Our target voters continue to outperform statewide early vote averages.
Across our program with our state partners, we’ve had over 1.8 million direct conversations with voters and touched over 12 million voters with our phones, door knocks, text, mail and digital program. I’ve included our most recent data on early voting in these critical states. Our National Political Director Grecia Lima can provide more information about our work and impact in these races, and our partners on the ground who talk to voters every day can speak to what they’re seeing and hearing in their communities. Let me know if you’re interested in talking to anyone and I’ll connect you.
In Georgia, the voters that we and our partners had direct conversations with continue to outperform statewide early vote averages. 43% of voters we reached have voted early, compared to 27% of statewide voters who have turned out. That puts our program at 16% higher than statewide averages, which is notable since our partners often focus on infrequent voters of color.
- We are seeing sporadic voters (voters that missed one or two past elections) are overperforming in our program by 20% (45% among our targeted universe vs. 25% statewide) and among surge voters (voters who registered post 2020 or voted for the first time post 2018) we are overperforming by 18% (40% within our program compared to 22% statewide). These are the type of voters we need to clinch a Democratic win in the state.
In Michigan, 22% of voters statewide have cast an early ballot, but 32% of people targeted by Community Change Action and our partners have voted. Voters we’ve reached are outperforming statewide averages in Michigan by 10%.
- Women within our program have turned out at 35%, whereas women in the state have turned out at 24%. Our program is overperforming by 11% the statewide trend.
- We have more than doubled turnout with the oldest voters. Greatest Generation members in our program have taken huge advantage of mail-in ballots and early vote – they have turned out at 42%, while the statewide average is 19%. Silent Generation voters are at 65% in our universe and 50% statewide and Baby Boomers are at 53% turnout in our program and just 37% statewide. If older voters are turning out at higher rates and we can supercharge early vote turnout among our targets, this frees us up to focus on younger voters.
- There have been a lot of stories about how Black men will vote. In our program, they are at 18% of turnout, whereas statewide they are at 13%, overperforming statewide trends by 5% points.
In Nevada, voters targeted by Community Change Action and our partners are overperforming statewide trends by 6% higher (25% in our program vs. 19% statewide).
- Outcomes in Nevada will hinge on infrequent voters, including younger voters who take advantage of early in person voting. Among sporadic voters, voters that missed one or two past elections, our program has turned out 27% of those voters, compared to the statewide 20%. A 7% increase in these voters is crucial in a state where a quarter of the electorate is new every cycle. And among surge voters (those who registered post 2020 or voted for the first time post 2018 ) we have turned out 19% compared to 14% statewide – 5% overperformance!
- AAPI voters in our program are overperforming 7 points ahead of the statewide average (26% vs. 18%) and Black voters in our program are overperforming 6 points at 19% turnout in our universe vs. 13% statewide.
- Silent Generation (56%) and Baby Boomers (49%) in our universe are significantly outperforming statewide averages (30% for the Silent generation and 29% for Baby Boomers).