It’s clear this election is going to come down to turnout. With early voting in key electoral states in full swing, the voters Community Change Action, Community Change Voters, and our grassroots partners are targeting have been outperforming statewide averages. Our organizing will help make up the margin of difference in states like Georgia and Michigan as we turn out infrequent and hard to reach voters who are Black, Latino, AAPI, immigrant, women, low-income, and young.
Below, you’ll find snapshots of our early vote data from each of these critical states. Let me know if you’re interested in talking to our National Political Director Grecia Lima about the ways we’re influencing early vote turnouts in hot races. I can also connect you with our partners doing voter outreach work on the ground.
Georgia:
- In Georgia, our universe is doing peachy – overall, 30% of voters we reached have voted early, compared to 21% of statewide voters who have turned out. That puts our program at 9% higher than statewide averages, which is notable since our partners often focus on voters of color who infrequently turn out.
- Much has been made of Black men’s support for Harris, which is still in the high 80% range. Together with our partner Black Male Initiative Fund, we are seeing that among our targeted voters, turnout is 27.77%, as compared to statewide at 16.68%. That’s an 11.09% impact from our program.
- Women have turned out at 26.9% so far statewide per TargetSmart, but women reached by our program have turned out 33.97%, a 7% gain.
- Millennial and Gen Z voters are currently 12% of those who voted statewide but we have turned out 18% of those in our universe, overperforming by 6%.
- To date, Community Change Action and our partners have had conversations with 38,267 early voters in Georgia. We also texted, attempted to door knock, left behind a flyer, or tried to call and or sent mail to 158,243 people who have voted.
- Among sporadic voters of color we’re targeting (those who turn out sometimes, but not every election), we are overperforming the state by 11% (28.71% among our targeted universe, 17.5% statewide) and among surge voters (voters who registered post 2020 or voted for the first time post 2018) we are overperforming by 9% (24.87% to 15.14%). This is important because it means that we are not counting voters who are already likely to vote, like the Republicans are, and are instead banking votes from those who are harder to turn out and could actually make up the gap for Harris.
Michigan
- Statewide in Michigan, 16% of voters have cast an early ballot, compared to 24% of people reached by Community Change Action and our partners. This 8 point bump our program provides is crucial in what we believe is likely to be the tipping point state. It means 138,853 voters targeted by our partners and ourselves have already voted.
- Women within our program have turned out at 24.14%, whereas women in the state have turned out at 17%.
- We have nearly doubled turnout by the oldest voters. Greatest Generation members in our program have taken huge advantage of mail-in ballots and early vote – they have turned out at 32.22%, while the statewide average is 16.86%. Silent Generation voters are at 53.58% in our universe and 43.21% statewide and Baby Boomers are at 39.86% turnout in our program and at 28.28% statewide. This is important because we know that historically, older voters turnout at higher rates, but if we’re able to supercharge early vote turnout among our targeted voters, it frees us up to focus on younger voters.
- As noted above, we know there have been a lot of stories about how Black men will vote. In our program, they are at 12% of turnout, whereas statewide they are at 9.92%. Detroit, Macomb, and Lansing are overperforming on early voter turnout.
- Among sporadic voters of color that we’re targeting, we’re overperforming the state by 4% (11.27% among our targeted universe, 7.37% statewide) and among surge voters (voters who registered post 2020 or voted for the first time post 1028) we are overperforming by 5.86% (15.5% to 9.64%).
- To date, Community Change Action and our partners have had conversations with 48,713 early voters in Michigan. We also texted, attempted door knocks, left behind flyers, or tried to call and or sent mail to 163,869 people who have voted.
And, as we continue our voter engagement work across the country, I wanted to share how our voters are talking about what‘s motivating them to vote in Arizona and Nevada this cycle.